josh-allen-bills.jpg
Imagn Images

It went rotten.

After a sizzling Week 15, my picks weren't so good in Week 16. That's usually what happens when you start thinking you are good making these picks.

It always seems to even out. Good, bad, good, bad, good, bad.

So that means it's time for some good this week.

I went 7-8-1 against the spread and 8-8 straight up last week. That brings my ATS record to 124-114-2 and the straight-up record to 159-80-1. 

With two weeks left, it's time to get back on track -- even if this is a tough week because of quarterback injuries and motivational factors. It's almost as challenging as Week 1 when there are so many unknowns. But here we go.

All Week 17 NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders

Thursday, 1 p.m. ET on Netflix

This looked like it might be a big Christmas Day game before the season, but it's not close to being one. Both teams are eliminated and the Commanders don't have their starting quarterback or likely their backup in Marcus Mariota. It could be Josh Johnson. Look for Dallas and Dak Prescott to go in and light up the Washington defense. Cowboys win it.

Pick: Cowboys 31, Commanders 23

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET on Netflix

The Lions need this game to have any playoff chance, but it won't be easy on the road. Minnesota has played outstanding defense. The problem is the Vikings have rookie Max Brosmer playing for the injured J.J. McCarthy. That could be an issue, even against a Lions defense that has struggled. 

Pick: Lions 21, Vikings 19

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime

The Broncos are coming off a bad loss to the Jaguars, so their focus will be good here. The Chiefs are done and hardly look like the team we've come to know the past eight years. Chris Oladokun  will start at quarterback against a good Denver defense. Good luck with that. The Broncos will rebound, but pride might keep the Chiefs in it for a bit. 

Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 13

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on NFLN (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This is an enormous game for both teams in terms of playoffs. Both are riding winning streaks, but the Chargers have looked better in theirs. The Texans' defensive front can cause problems for Justin Herbert, but they were better in protection last week against the Cowboys. Look for the Chargers defense to win this one against a Texans offense that struggled against the Raiders. 

Pick: Chargers 22, Texans 16

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Peacock

The Packers might not need this game if the Lions lose on Thursday. That's a good thing since Jordan Love is in the concussion protocol. Lamar Jackson could also miss this game for the Ravens with a bad back. The Ravens have to have this one or they are done. This is tough to pick, with the QB injuries, so I will go with the home team. 

Pick: Packers 24, Ravens 20

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This is a game featuring two of the disappointments of the season. But Joe Burrow can still light up a defense like he did last week against Miami and the Cardinals on the road in the cold just seems like a formula for misery. Their defense is miserable too. Burrow will put up a big number as the Bengals roll.  

Pick: Bengals 38, Cardinals 19

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Colts have slim playoff hopes, while the Jaguars are trying to win the division. Motivation goes to the Jaguars. The Colts have a ton of major injuries and the defense is a mess. The Jacksonville offense is rolling and Trevor Lawrence will continue that here. 

Pick: Jaguars 35, Colts 20

New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Jets have been awful the past two weeks and wouldn't seem like much of a threat here. But the Patriots are coming off a big victory against the Ravens and might not be as focused. OK, forget it. This is going to be an easy ride for the Patriots. Blowout city. 

Pick: Patriots 36, Jets 9

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Saints have come alive with Tyler Shough at quarterback, while the Titans are coming off a victory over the Chiefs. They played much better in that game. But I think the Saints have consistently played better and Shough will continue to play well here. Saints win it.  

Pick: Saints 27, Titans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+) 

The Steelers might not need this game if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night. But even so, they seem to be getting things righted, so they probably want that momentum to carry over. The defense has improved in a big way in recent games and that should show up against a bad Browns offense. 

Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 13

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a long trip for the Seahawks in their quest to win the NFC West, but they played last Thursday, which helps with the rest. Look for the defense to play well here and limit Bryce Young and the Panthers offense. Sam Darnold will play better than he did against the Rams as the Seahawks win it.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Panthers 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Bucs have to win the next two to win the division. Miami is done and the past two weeks has played like it. This is a road game for Tampa Bay, but will it feel like it? Look for Tampa Bay to win it behind a better showing from Baker Mayfield and the offense. 

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Dolphins 21

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is the "No. 1 Pick Bowl" with the loser actually winning. The loser will go into the final week as the team with the first-overall pick. That would be a good thing. As for the game, the Raiders showed better last week and I think that carries over. They win an ugly one against a Giants team that struggles on offense.   

Pick: Raiders 21, Giants 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This is a big game in terms of playoff push, but both teams have locked up playoff berths. The Eagles are playing for seeding, while the Bills are just hoping to win two and hope the Pats lose to have a chance to win the division. This could be a game that gets a little loose, with the Bills winning it late with a field goal in the final seconds.

Pick: Bills 33, Eagles 31

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

This is a huge game in terms of the NFC playoff race. The 49ers are coming off a Monday night victory, but being at home helps that short week. The Bears are rested, having played on Saturday. But the 49ers offense is cooking right now and I think Brock Purdy will get the best of the Chicago defense.

Pick: 49ers 32, Bears 27

Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Atlanta Falcons

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

The Rams are still playing for the division title, while the Falcons are headed to vacation in two weeks. Atlanta has played better lately winning two straight games, but this is a big step up in competition. The Rams will be rested, having played last Thursday, and I they will play well in a bounce-back spot. Rams win it.

Pick: Rams 31, Falcons 21